A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
